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Simple probability
Probability 1 256
Description
Exercise Name: Simple probability
Math Missions: 7th grade (U.S.) Math MissionHigh school statistics and probability Math Mission, Precalculus Math Mission, Mathematics III Math Mission
Types of Problems: 2

The Simple probability exercise appears under the 7th grade (U.S.) Math MissionHigh school statistics and probability Math Mission, Precalculus Math Mission and Mathematics III Math Mission. This exercise practices the idea of basic probability but does not provide a model or picture to help.

Types of Problems

There are two types of problems in this exercise:

  1. Roll a die: This problem asks for a probability involving rolling a single die. The user is to find the correct probability and type it into the appropriate box.
    Prob1

    Roll a die

  2. Picking marbles: This problem describes a bad with some marbles and asks a probability question based on that bag. The user solves the probability and types it in the blank.
    Prob2

    Picking marbles

Strategies

This exercise is easy to get accuracy badges because there are only two types of situations that can arise at this level. Speed badges are medium because it is easy to make subtle errors, like missing a "not," if the user is going too quickly.

  1. Even though the pictures are not drawn, the user can increase their likelihood of getting questions correct if the user draws their own picture of the collection of marbles or all six possibilities that can happen when they roll a single die.
  2. The questions can be subtle and require careful reading more than they're difficult.

Real-life Applications

  1. Data and statistics appear in news reports and in the media every day.
  2. Many of the problems in this exercise could be viewed as real-life applications.
  3. Statistics can be seen more frequently than calculus in everyday life.
  4. Sports: When a team has a coin toss before the game, they have a 50/50 chance of winning it: either heads or tails.
  5. Board Games: If one is using a game spinner with four sections – red, blue, green and yellow – they have a 25 percent chance of landing on any one color.
  6. Medical Decisions: If one is told they need surgery, they’ll want to know the success rate of the operation. Based upon the statistics, they can make an informed decision whether or not it’s a good choice for them.
  7. Insurance Premiums: Car insurance companies look at one's age and driving record when deciding their premium rate. If they see they've had several accidents, the likelihood is that they might have another one. In that case, their rates will be higher than a safe drivers.
  8. Life Expectancy: Life expectancy is based upon the number of years similar groups have lived in the past. These ages are used as guidelines by entities such as financial advisers to help clients prepare for their retirement years and actuaries to determine how much a life insurance policy should cost.
  9. Casino Games: Casino owners aren’t in the business to lose money. The odds are in their favor. Gamblers play the games, in hopes of defying those odds. In the game of blackjack, a player has a 1 in 20 chance of getting 21, a "blackjack." The probability is 5 percent.
  10. Weather: If one is planning an outdoor event such as a wedding, they’ll want to check the probability of rain. Meteorologists predict weather based upon patterns that have occurred in previous years. Temperatures and natural disasters such as tornadoes, floods, and hurricanes factor into forecasts.

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